The dollar has gained 18 percent since touching a record low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15 on speculation the U.S. currency will benefit as the European economy slows. The U.S. currency's advance against the euro accelerated after stop losses on investors' long positions on the euro were activated when $1.3260 was broken, said Antje Praefcke, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank.
Kind of sad for me as we're paid in Euros, but sending most back to the US to pay bills there. If it becomes even we'll have to move back because it won't make sense for us to be here any longer.
I think it makes me a bad person to want the Euro to rise again!
Yes, it's definitely a mixed bag. We like it because it makes stuff cheaper to buy here in Europe, but it's actually bad news for the US economy. A strong dollar is bad for US exports, which over the past year were one of the few bright spots for the US.
The U.S. currency's advance against the euro accelerated after stop losses on investors' long positions on the euro were activated when $1.3260 was broken, said Antje Praefcke, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank.
So does this guy know where the next activation point is?
Posts: 101 | Location (City & State): Oakland, CA and Central Lazio | Registered: 11 January 2006
With the rate at 1.26, I want to convert a significant sum of money to euros and maintain a savings account in euros. The problem is that I'm living in the US until next summer, and it appears impossible to open an account without an Italian address. (I'm a US citizen and had my Italian citizenship documentation approved in May ... should have my Italian passport by December).
I know of Everbank in the US, but that doesn't look very attractive to me. Has anyone opened an offshore account elsewhere or an Italian account without an Italian address? Any advice/suggestions?
Posts: 8 | Location (City & State): Los Angeles | Registered: 30 November 2007
The true rate for the dollar based on purchasing power is about parity. However, the long term prospects for the dollar are poor. Interest rates are heading for 1% and the balance of trade deficit is grotesque. The use of the dollar as a (kind of) safe haven in times of wild fluctuations on the foreign exchanges has history. This cannot last unless overseas customers start buying dollars to pay for American goods, more so than the purchase of, say Euros to pay for stuff exported from here. Do not regard this as financial advice, since I don't know stuff that everyone else doesn't.
Posts: 10 | Location (City & State): Falerone, Le Marche | Registered: 06 October 2008
www.forex.com is a currency exchange site where you can buy and sell euro, play the currency market.
quote:
Originally posted by Charles: With the rate at 1.26, I want to convert a significant sum of money to euros and maintain a savings account in euros. The problem is that I'm living in the US until next summer, and it appears impossible to open an account without an Italian address. (I'm a US citizen and had my Italian citizenship documentation approved in May ... should have my Italian passport by December).
I know of Everbank in the US, but that doesn't look very attractive to me. Has anyone opened an offshore account elsewhere or an Italian account without an Italian address? Any advice/suggestions?
Posts: 780 | Location (City & State): EX-Verona (VR), Now NJ | Registered: 27 November 2006
The euro's sharp descent against the dollar may have further to run as a potential emerging-market crisis threatens more trouble for European banks, and the euro may even return to parity with the dollar.
The meltdown in stocks and currencies from Asia to Latin America has spurred fears about the exposure of European banks, which had been aggressive in pursuing opportunities in emerging markets over the past decade.
"European banks account for about three-quarters of the $4.7 trillion of cross-border loans to emerging markets," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "Despite the finger-pointing from Europe as to how irresponsible the U.S. has been, there is a crisis brewing of their own making that may turn out to more destabilizing than the U.S. subprime fiasco."
Bank exposure to emerging markets amounts to about 21 percent of European gross domestic product.
The thing is, European central banks are doing the same thing. So that's a wash. The article mentions some other considerations, such as:
quote:
European banks account for about three-quarters of the $4.7 trillion of cross-border loans to emerging markets," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "Despite the finger-pointing from Europe as to how irresponsible the U.S. has been, there is a crisis brewing of their own making that may turn out to more destabilizing than the U.S. subprime fiasco."
Bank exposure to emerging markets amounts to about 21 percent of European gross domestic product.
The article does seem to say, "Gosh could be anywhere from $1.12 to $1.45 in 12 months time." Which, even though it seems vague is a fairly narrow range considering a forecast of 12 months.
I would be overjoyed with $1.12 though the current ~$1.30 is a tremendous improvement over the backbreaking $1.60 I was living with.
Of course living in Italy and being paid in dollars does make me a bit of an unwilling currency trader. I always need to keep in mind that whatever the exchange rate, jobs in the US pay much more than they do here.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Aron,
Don't know how accurate this is, but sounds like the Euro may begin rising now:
quote:
“The recent advance of the dollar rests on a weak foundation,” Powell and Sinche wrote. “The rapid expansion of a country’s monetary base should prove to be inconsistent with a strengthening of its currency.” The dollar may weaken to $1.4180 per euro, a 50 percent retracement of its rally from a record low of $1.6038 in July to a 2 1/2-year high of $1.233 in October, they wrote.
Expats in Italy Forum 
